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skills/market-environment-analysis/references/analysis_patterns.md

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+# Market Analysis Patterns
+
+## Market Pattern Analysis
+
+### Trend Identification
+1. **Uptrend**
+   - Higher highs and higher lows
+   - Moving averages trending upward
+   - Price rises accompanied by volume increases
+
+2. **Downtrend**
+   - Lower highs and lower lows
+   - Moving averages trending downward
+   - Decreased volume on bounces
+
+3. **Range-Bound Market**
+   - Trading within defined range
+   - Moving averages sideways
+   - Declining volume trend
+
+### Risk-On / Risk-Off Assessment
+
+#### Risk-On Environment Characteristics
+- Stock markets rising (especially emerging markets)
+- High-yield currency buying (AUD, NZD, etc.)
+- VIX index declining
+- Interest rates rising
+- Risk assets like crude oil rising
+
+#### Risk-Off Environment Characteristics
+- Flight to safe assets (yen buying, Swiss franc buying)
+- Gold prices rising
+- Bond buying (yields falling)
+- VIX index rising
+- Emerging market currencies and stocks selling
+
+## Economic Indicator Interpretation
+
+### Employment Data (US)
+
+- **Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)**
+  - +200k or more above expectations: Strong employment, rate hike expectations
+  - -100k or more below expectations: Employment deterioration, rate cut expectations
+
+- **Unemployment Rate**
+  - 3.5% or below: Near full employment
+  - 4.0% or above: Signs of employment environment deterioration
+
+### Inflation Indicators
+
+- **CPI (Consumer Price Index)**
+  - 2% YoY: Fed target level
+  - 3%+: Inflation alert
+  - Below 1%: Deflation risk
+
+- **PPI (Producer Price Index)**
+  - Important as CPI leading indicator
+  - Captures upstream inflation
+
+### Central Bank Policy
+
+- **Fed (Federal Reserve)**
+  - Watch dot plot
+  - Policy rate outlook changes
+
+- **BOJ (Bank of Japan)**
+  - YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy
+  - ETF purchase trends
+
+- **ECB (European Central Bank)**
+  - 2% inflation target
+  - Response to regional disparities
+
+## Inter-Market Correlation Analysis
+
+### Positive Correlation Patterns
+- Stocks ↑ → Interest rates ↑ (strong economy)
+- USD/JPY ↑ → Nikkei ↑ (exporters favorable)
+- Crude oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑
+
+### Inverse Correlation Patterns
+- Interest rates ↑ → Bond prices ↓
+- Dollar ↑ → Gold prices ↓
+- VIX ↑ → Stocks ↓
+
+## Seasonality & Anomalies
+
+### Monthly Patterns
+- **January Effect**: New year fund inflows
+- **Sell in May**: Pre-summer doldrums position closing
+- **September**: Historically weak month
+- **December**: Tax-loss selling, Santa Claus rally
+
+### Day-of-Week Effects
+- **Monday**: Weekend risk pricing
+- **Friday**: Position adjustments
+
+### Fiscal Year-End
+- **End of March**: Japanese corporate fiscal year, repatriation flows
+- **End of December**: Western corporate fiscal year
+
+## Technical Indicator Usage
+
+### Trend Indicators
+- **Moving Averages**: 25-day, 75-day, 200-day line relationships
+- **MACD**: Identifying trend turning points
+- **Bollinger Bands**: Volatility and contrarian entry points
+
+### Oscillators
+- **RSI**: Over 70 overbought, below 30 oversold
+- **Stochastics**: Short-term turning points
+- **Volume**: Confirming price movement reliability
+
+## Sentiment Analysis
+
+### Capturing Investor Psychology
+- **Put/Call Ratio**: Option market skew
+- **Bull/Bear Ratio**: Investor surveys
+- **Fear & Greed Index**: CNN Fear & Greed Index
+
+### News Flow Analysis
+- Headline tone changes
+- Media coverage frequency
+- Social media buzzwords

skills/market-environment-analysis/references/indicators.md

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+# Market Indicators Reference
+
+## Major Stock Indices
+
+### Japan
+- **Nikkei 225**: Stock price average of 225 representative stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime
+  - Key levels: 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 yen
+  - Moving averages: Emphasize 25-day, 75-day, 200-day lines
+
+- **TOPIX**: Market-cap weighted average of all Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime stocks
+  - Better reflects overall market
+  - Heavily influenced by banking/financial sector
+
+### United States
+- **S&P 500**: 500 large-cap US stocks
+  - Most representative US stock index
+  - Key levels: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000 points
+
+- **NASDAQ**: Tech-focused
+  - Reflects mega-cap tech stock trends like GAFAM
+  - Higher volatility
+
+- **Dow Jones Industrial Average**: Simple average of 30 stocks
+  - Historically significant but limited representation
+
+## Foreign Exchange Rates
+
+### USD/JPY (Dollar-Yen)
+- Greatest impact on Japanese economy
+- Key levels: 140, 145, 150, 155 yen
+- BOJ intervention alert line: Reference past intervention records
+
+### EUR/JPY (Euro-Yen)
+- Related to European economy
+- Influenced by ECB policy
+
+### CNY/JPY (Yuan-Yen)
+- Reflects Chinese economic trends
+- Indicator of Asian trade
+
+## Volatility Indicators
+
+### VIX Index (Fear Index)
+- Calculated from S&P 500 option prices
+- Quantifies market anxiety psychology
+- Interpretation:
+  - 10-15: Low volatility, stable market
+  - 15-20: Normal range
+  - 20-30: Unstable, caution needed
+  - 30+: High stress, panic selling
+
+### Nikkei VI
+- Volatility indicator for Nikkei Average
+- Japanese version of VIX
+
+## Commodities
+
+### Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
+- Important as inflation indicator
+- Reflects geopolitical risks
+- Key levels: 70, 80, 90, 100 dollars/barrel
+
+### Gold
+- Representative safe asset
+- Tends to rise during dollar weakness/inflation
+- Key levels: 1,900, 2,000, 2,100 dollars/ounce
+
+## Interest Rates & Bonds
+
+### US 10-Year Treasury Yield
+- Most critical interest rate indicator
+- Direct impact on stock valuations
+- Key levels: 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%
+
+### Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
+- Reflects BOJ policy
+- Watch YCC target range
+
+## Sector-Specific Focus Points
+
+### Technology
+- AI-related stock trends
+- Semiconductor cycle
+- Regulatory risks
+
+### Financials
+- Heavily influenced by interest rate trends
+- Bank lending attitudes
+- Non-performing loan ratios
+
+### Energy
+- Linked to crude oil prices
+- Impact of decarbonization policies
+- Renewable energy shift
+
+### Consumer
+- Consumer confidence index
+- Retail sales
+- Inflation impact