openclaw-backups/skills/market-environment-analysis/references/indicators.md

Market Indicators Reference

Major Stock Indices

Japan

• Nikkei 225: Stock price average of 225 representative stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime

  • Key levels: 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 yen
  • Moving averages: Emphasize 25-day, 75-day, 200-day lines

• TOPIX: Market-cap weighted average of all Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime stocks

  • Better reflects overall market
  • Heavily influenced by banking/financial sector

United States

• S&P 500: 500 large-cap US stocks

  • Most representative US stock index
  • Key levels: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000 points

• NASDAQ: Tech-focused

  • Reflects mega-cap tech stock trends like GAFAM
  • Higher volatility

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Simple average of 30 stocks

  • Historically significant but limited representation

Foreign Exchange Rates

USD/JPY (Dollar-Yen)

• Greatest impact on Japanese economy
• Key levels: 140, 145, 150, 155 yen
• BOJ intervention alert line: Reference past intervention records

EUR/JPY (Euro-Yen)

• Related to European economy
• Influenced by ECB policy

CNY/JPY (Yuan-Yen)

• Reflects Chinese economic trends
• Indicator of Asian trade

Volatility Indicators

VIX Index (Fear Index)

• Calculated from S&P 500 option prices
• Quantifies market anxiety psychology
• Interpretation:
  • 10-15: Low volatility, stable market
  • 15-20: Normal range
  • 20-30: Unstable, caution needed
  • 30+: High stress, panic selling

Nikkei VI

• Volatility indicator for Nikkei Average
• Japanese version of VIX

Commodities

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)

• Important as inflation indicator
• Reflects geopolitical risks
• Key levels: 70, 80, 90, 100 dollars/barrel

Gold

• Representative safe asset
• Tends to rise during dollar weakness/inflation
• Key levels: 1,900, 2,000, 2,100 dollars/ounce

Interest Rates & Bonds

US 10-Year Treasury Yield

• Most critical interest rate indicator
• Direct impact on stock valuations
• Key levels: 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%

Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield

• Reflects BOJ policy
• Watch YCC target range

Sector-Specific Focus Points

Technology

• AI-related stock trends
• Semiconductor cycle
• Regulatory risks

Financials

• Heavily influenced by interest rate trends
• Bank lending attitudes
• Non-performing loan ratios

Energy

• Linked to crude oil prices
• Impact of decarbonization policies
• Renewable energy shift

Consumer

• Consumer confidence index
• Retail sales
• Inflation impact