openclaw-backups/skills/market-environment-analysis/references/analysis_patterns.md

Market Analysis Patterns

Market Pattern Analysis

Trend Identification

1. Uptrend

   • Higher highs and higher lows
   • Moving averages trending upward
   • Price rises accompanied by volume increases

2. Downtrend

   • Lower highs and lower lows
   • Moving averages trending downward
   • Decreased volume on bounces

3. Range-Bound Market

   • Trading within defined range
   • Moving averages sideways
   • Declining volume trend

Risk-On / Risk-Off Assessment

Risk-On Environment Characteristics

• Stock markets rising (especially emerging markets)
• High-yield currency buying (AUD, NZD, etc.)
• VIX index declining
• Interest rates rising
• Risk assets like crude oil rising

Risk-Off Environment Characteristics

• Flight to safe assets (yen buying, Swiss franc buying)
• Gold prices rising
• Bond buying (yields falling)
• VIX index rising
• Emerging market currencies and stocks selling

Economic Indicator Interpretation

Employment Data (US)

• Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

  • +200k or more above expectations: Strong employment, rate hike expectations
  • -100k or more below expectations: Employment deterioration, rate cut expectations

• Unemployment Rate

  • 3.5% or below: Near full employment
  • 4.0% or above: Signs of employment environment deterioration

Inflation Indicators

• CPI (Consumer Price Index)

  • 2% YoY: Fed target level
  • 3%+: Inflation alert
  • Below 1%: Deflation risk

• PPI (Producer Price Index)

  • Important as CPI leading indicator
  • Captures upstream inflation

Central Bank Policy

• Fed (Federal Reserve)

  • Watch dot plot
  • Policy rate outlook changes

• BOJ (Bank of Japan)

  • YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy
  • ETF purchase trends

• ECB (European Central Bank)

  • 2% inflation target
  • Response to regional disparities

Inter-Market Correlation Analysis

Positive Correlation Patterns

• Stocks ↑ → Interest rates ↑ (strong economy)
• USD/JPY ↑ → Nikkei ↑ (exporters favorable)
• Crude oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑

Inverse Correlation Patterns

• Interest rates ↑ → Bond prices ↓
• Dollar ↑ → Gold prices ↓
• VIX ↑ → Stocks ↓

Seasonality & Anomalies

Monthly Patterns

• January Effect: New year fund inflows
• Sell in May: Pre-summer doldrums position closing
• September: Historically weak month
• December: Tax-loss selling, Santa Claus rally

Day-of-Week Effects

• Monday: Weekend risk pricing
• Friday: Position adjustments

Fiscal Year-End

• End of March: Japanese corporate fiscal year, repatriation flows
• End of December: Western corporate fiscal year

Technical Indicator Usage

Trend Indicators

• Moving Averages: 25-day, 75-day, 200-day line relationships
• MACD: Identifying trend turning points
• Bollinger Bands: Volatility and contrarian entry points

Oscillators

• RSI: Over 70 overbought, below 30 oversold
• Stochastics: Short-term turning points
• Volume: Confirming price movement reliability

Sentiment Analysis

Capturing Investor Psychology

• Put/Call Ratio: Option market skew
• Bull/Bear Ratio: Investor surveys
• Fear & Greed Index: CNN Fear & Greed Index

News Flow Analysis

• Headline tone changes
• Media coverage frequency
• Social media buzzwords